US and Russia Vie for Influence in Post-Coup Niger

Niger, a uranium-rich, landlocked West Africa country, has emerged as a focus of power competition between the United States-led West and Russia after a military coup toppled its American-allied president.

The US wants to prevent Russia from expanding its influence in Niger, where US and French forces have been conducting military operations against the Islamic State and other radical Islamist groups. Niger, where 4.3 million people currently require humanitarian assistance, became a lynchpin for US anti-jihadist operations after the military takeover in neighboring Mali, which welcomed Russia’s Wagner military forces into the country and kicked out the West.

Victoria Nuland, the acting Deputy Secretary of State, said on August 7 during a trip to Niamey, the country’s capital, that there has been little progress reversing the July 26 coup. She met with the self-proclaimed chief of defense, General Barmou, who has worked closely with US Special Forces, and three of the colonels supporting him.

However, coup leaders in Niger refused to allow her to meet with the West African country’s democratically elected president, whom she described as under “virtual house arrest.” She also described the “mutinous officers” as “unreceptive to U.S. pressure to return the country to civilian rule.”

“I will say that I got the sense in my meetings today that the people who have taken this action here understand very well the risks to their sovereignty when Wagner is invited in,” Nuland said. “We were able to go through in considerable detail the risks to aspects of our cooperation that he has historically cared about a lot. So we are hopeful that that will sink in.”

Blinken Warns

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres echoed Nuland’s message, raising concerns about the continued detention of Bazoum and the failure to restore constitutional order in Niger,

Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Niger in March, marking the highest-ranking US official to travel to the country. At the time, he praised the gains made by elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, who was also an honored guest at the democracy and Africa summits thrown by President Joe Biden.

Russia and the Wagner mercenary group have “tried to take advantage” of instability in Niger, Blinken warned in an interview with BBC on August 8. Blinken voiced concern about the mercenary troops "possibly manifesting itself" in parts of the Sahel region. The concern is not wholly unfounded with neighboring Mali having taken a similar route two years earlier.

“I think what happened, and what continues to happen in Niger was not instigated by Russia or by Wagner, but... they tried to take advantage of it. Every single place that this Wagner group has gone, death, destruction and exploitation have followed," Blinken told the BBC.

Wagner in Africa

While there appears to be no Russian involvement in the military coup, Moscow has gained influence in Africa.

Wagner is an important foreign policy component for the Kremlin in Africa, where the mercenary group provides military support and has extensive business ventures. Wagner is currently known to operate in Mali, the Central African Republic (CAR), Burkina Faso, Libya, Sudan and Mozambique.

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin in a purported audio message hailed the coup as "nothing more than the struggle of the people of Niger against colonizers." Reflecting this, thousands of people backing the military marched on July 30 through the streets of the capital, Niamey, waving Russian flags, and setting a door at the French Embassy ablaze.

“The Prigozhin network has become the dominant element of Russia's presence in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years,” Maxime Audinet, a researcher from the Strategic Research Institute at Paris’ École Militaire, said.

Uranium Exports

The military coup had also raised concerns about uranium exports to Europe from the world's seventh largest producer of the radioactive metal. The spot price of uranium, widely used for nuclear energy and treating cancer, crept up to $56.25 a pound July 31 from $56.15 a week earlier, Reuters reported, citing market research firm and consultancy UxC.

The spot price has little change because Orano sells uranium on long-term contracts and the summer months are slow in the spot market, said Jonathan Hinze, president of UxC. "An event like this could take a bit more time to seep into the market psychology. We could very well still see bigger impacts in the days and weeks to come," he told Reuters.

French nuclear fuels company Orano, which operates uranium mines in the West African country, said its activities were ongoing despite the coup at its production sites in Arlit and Akokan as well as at the headquarters in Niamey. Orano said that 99% of its staff in the country were Nigerien nationals, adding that its operations would not be disrupted by evacuation of French nationals.

Ben Godwin – head of analysis at London-based Prism Political Risk Management told Al Jazeera that current events in Niger, which produces 4 percent of the world’s uranium supply, could be critical to Europe.

“It [the coup] is certainly a topic of great interest in the moment, particularly as uranium markets are very, very tight at the moment,” he said. “Demand has been going up over the last few years, and this year, we’ve seen the uranium spot price go up by nearly 40 percent year to date.”

ECOWAS Intervention

West African leaders conveined an emergency summit in Nigeria to address the recent military coup. The coup leaders, who had threatened to use force to restore democracy, have now defied their own ultimatum.

Nigerian President Bola Tinubu, who is the head of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), highlighted the threat posed by the coup to the entire region. The leaders were focused on finding a solution to ensure a swift return to constitutional governance in Niger.

The coup leaders have not released the detained President Mohamed Bazoum, prompting a deadline from ECOWAS that they ignored. In response, ECOWAS issued a seven day ultimatum to the Niger junta to relinguish power back to Mohammed Bazoum or face military actions.

The presence of key representatives from Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger remains unclear. While Mauritania and Burundi's presidents were present, the coup leaders have expressed desires for eased sanctions, essential supplies, and electricity restoration.

The situation is critical, as allowing the coup to succeed could undermine ECOWAS's credibility and democracy in the region. In preparation for a military intervention, which was considered a last resort, ECOWAS has activated its standby force against the coup-government in Niger.

The communiqué, which was read by the President of ECOWAS Commission, Omar Alieu Toure, further called on all partner countries and institutions including the United Nations to support ECOWAS in its effort to ensure a quick restoration of constitutional order in conformity with its normative instruments.