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Florida’s production of oranges has fallen as weather disruptions, shrinking acreage, and citrus greening reduce output to the lowest levels since the 1930s, a persistent development that is leading to higher prices and imports from Brazil.

The US Department of Agriculture announced on July 12 that a final 2022-23 season forecast of 15.85 million boxes of oranges, extending a decline that started in the early 2000s. It’s the lowest level since 1936 when production also hovered around 15.9 million before oranges became a staple of the American diet that was fueled by the post-World War II economic boom.

Florida orange output has declined due the combination of the lingering impact from Hurricanes Ian and Nicole and citrus greening. Hurricane Ian in 2022 caused a 50% to 90% loss in citrus revenue after dropping nearly 20 inches of rain by the time it exited Florida, according to AGDaily.

Another problem is land development to accommodate the more than 1,000 people who on average moved to the state every day last year, according to the 2022 Lay of the Land market report. Citrus acreage is less than half of what it was in 1996 when it stood at more than 800,000 acres. In 2021, there were 16,289 acres of citrus sold and more than 17,000 acres sold in 2022.

For citrus producers, a rice-sized bug is devastating orange trees.

The Asian citrus psyllid causes a disease called citrus greening, a disease that starves citrus trees and creates symptoms such as premature fruit drop and small, bitter tasting fruit unfit for use, whether as produce or in juice. Citrus greening has been around in the world for centuries, but it was first detected in Florida in 2005 in Miami.

US Decline

The decline in Florida reflects a broader US trend in orange production. The USDA pegged the 2022-2023 U.S. orange crop at 62.25 million boxes, an 86-year low and down 23% on the year. That is less than 20% of U.S. output in the record 1997-1998 season.

While the US is still a top five orange exporter, it is expected to account for 6% of global shipments this season versus a peak share of 23% two decades ago, according to Reuters. The United States was the leading orange exporter in 1983, but it had been trading off with Morocco and South Africa.

Reminiscent of the 1983 movie “Trading Places,” when two characters enriched themselves by creating a fake crop report from the US Department of Agriculture, orange juice futures in New York are near record highs, though not through market manipulation.

In April, front-month ICE traded FCOJ futures hit a record $2.87-1/2 per pound, and is up nearly 40% so far this calendar year. However, adjusted for inflation, FCOJ futures traded mostly above today’s levels throughout the 1980s, Reuters reported.

Brazilian Imports

With US production in decline, the US has turned to Brazil for its supplies.

Shipments from the South American country surged to a record in the 12 months ended in June, Bloomberg reported, citing industry group CitrusBR, which began tracking the data in 2005. Shipments increased 55% from a year ago.

Demand for Brazilian juice should remain strong for the next 12 months, said Ibiapaba Netto, executive director at CitrusBR. “Even if the next Florida crop shows some slight recovery, production levels are already set to be very low,” he said.